At a moment that American and Ukrainian delegations are meeting in Saudi Arabia, which includes President Zelensky’s presence, Turkey has offered that it is willing to send troops to Ukraine if necessary, according to Reuters.
“Turkiye remains committed to supporting Ukraine’s sovereignty while advocating for a peaceful resolution,” a statement said. The offer is unusual given that Turkey under Erdogan has long maintained a delicate balancing act between NATO and Russian interests.
Turkey is of course NATO’s lone alliance member which straddles two continents – Europe and Asia – and extends across the entire southern shore of the Black Sea.
The report notes that any potential Turkish deployment would be contingent on international agreements and whether it meets Turkey’s national interests.
While the Kremlin has welcomed Turkey’s diplomatic engagement on the Ukraine war, which included for example hosting talks in the opening months of the conflict, Russia has already condemned the possibility of any NATO troops being positioned in Ukraine, even if they are dubbed ‘peacekeepers’.
Turkey’s troop offer has been made in the context of European officials trying to figure out how to stay the course in supporting Ukraine as the Trump administration withdraws the United States.
There is also the ultimate question of how Europe and NATO would ‘defend’ Europe without the US. One recent defense policy paper offers the following estimates:
The current assumption of NATO military planners (RAND, 2024) is that in case of a Russian attack on a European NATO country, 100,000 US troops stationed in Europe would be rapidly augmented by up to 200,000 additional US troops, concentrated in US armoured units best suited for the East European battlefield.
A realistic estimate may therefore be that an increase in European capacities equivalent to the fighting capacity of 300,000 US troops is needed, with a focus on mechanized and armored forces to replace US army heavy units. This translates to roughly 50 new European brigades.
But this is precisely why President Trump is pushing a quick peace plan – the ‘alternative’ could be a European-wide WW3 scenario. Trump officials have said the president wants to avoid this at all costs.
Zelensky is meanwhile expected to present a ground and air ceasefire in the context of Saudi talks, but is unlikely to offer any territorial concessions at this point. Media headlines are describing that Zelensky is pushing for a partial truce with Russia. The White House is at the same time urging that new elections be held in war-ravaged Ukraine.
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