After the surprising 3.2% MoM surge in January, US durable goods orders were expected to slide in preliminary February data. However, in yet another recession-imminent-narrative crushing ‘hard’ data point, orders rose 0.9% MoM (-1.0% exp) and January was revised up from +3.2% MoM to +3.3% MoM…
Source: Bloomberg
The Commerce Department’s durable goods report showed commercial aircraft bookings, which are volatile from month to month, dropped 5% after nearly doubling in January. Boeing Co. reported 13 orders in February, down from 36 a month earlier.
Even more notably, core durable goods orders surged 0.7% MoM – the biggest MoM jump since March 2022…
Source: Bloomberg
This pushed the total durable goods orders back up near record highs…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, Core capital goods shipments, a figure that is used to help calculate equipment investment in the government’s gross domestic product report, rose 0.9%, the most in a year.
Not exactly recessionary signaling. Of course, the first excuse out of every talking heads’ mouth will be “well it’s front-running Trump’s tariffs… and won’t be sustainable” – we shall see (and why didn’t the forecasting analysts see that coming?).
The partisan ‘soft’ data to non-partisan ‘hard’ data decoupling continues to grow.
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