This morning Tesla announced Q1 deliveries of 336,681 vehicles, falling below even the lowest expectations that Wall Street had set for the automaker and marking a -13% plunge in deliveries from the year prior period.
In its press release, Tesla said “the changeover of Model Y lines across all four of our factories led to the loss of several weeks of production in Q1,” but then added that “the ramp of the New Model Y continues to go well.”
While FactSet’s consensus forecast projected 408,000 Q1 Tesla deliveries—a 5% year-over-year increase—recent signals suggested a decline instead. Wall Street consensus estimates reported by Reuters had expected Tesla to report roughly 373,000 vehicle deliveries for Q1—down 3.6% from the same period the previous year.
Some analysts, however, believed the actual figure might be closer to 350,000 or lower. Major banks like Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and UBS cut estimates to between 351,000 and 375,000. Prediction market Kalshi expected 353,000, marking a 9% drop.
No one had a number in the 330k region.
The company reported 12,881 deliveries of its other models, including its Cybertruck, Model S and Model X.
Analysts at Deutsche Bank had predicted as few as 340,000 deliveries, while Tesla’s declining sales in key markets like China and Europe further fueled skepticism.
Thomas Martin, senior portfolio manager at Tesla shareholder Globalt Investments had told Reuters: “I think that the numbers are going to come in below 400,000 and, maybe as low as 350,000.”
After Tesla’s first annual delivery drop in 2024, Elon Musk vowed a return to growth. Wall Street was closely watching whether Model Y updates and new incentives would help.
Tesla faces both growing competition abroad and backlash at home, particularly over Musk’s political ties and role in federal spending cuts under President Trump. This has alienated many left-leaning customers, with trade-ins hitting record highs.
“We have seen major brand deterioration of Tesla across the entire world essentially,” said Ken Mahoney, CEO of Mahoney Asset Management, told Reuters earlier today.
“The brand has become far more politicized than any public company’s brand should wish to be.”
The only question now is whether Tesla has “kitchen sinked” this quarter to try and post a better looking rest of the year, as it has already been reported that Elon Musk will likely move on from DOGE and back to the company heading into the middle of 2025…
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