When you think of the greatest innovation of the 21st century, what comes to mind? I would guess it might just be the smartphone and its ability to give us anywhere, anytime, high-speed access to the internet. And I wouldn’t disagree. What’s more, the value of smartphones should only increase going forward since they allow us to carry not just the stock of human knowledge in our pockets, but also powerful artificial intelligence as well. Indeed, AI might take the title in a few years and never give it back.
That said, some innovations are more than worthy of honorable mention, including CRISPR gene editing, mRNA vaccines, and fracking technology. To those, I would add the combination of engineering and manufacturing advances employed by SpaceX that has allowed a 90 percent reduction in launch cost over the past decade after remaining stagnant for years. And to that 90 percent, notes Matt Weinzierl of Harvard Business School and co-author of the new book Space to Grow: Unlocking the Final Economic Frontier, you can add how the company transformed satellite internet through Starlink and also another 90 percent decline in launch costs if its Starship rocket works as intended.
As Weinzierl said to me in a recent podcast chat, “We open our chapter in the book on SpaceX by saying we believe it’ll go down as one of the most important companies in the history of humanity, and I really do believe that.”
As Weinzierl went on to explain in that conversation, the dramatic shift in space economics transforms what’s possible in space, potentially enabling many “1960s space dreams” previously dismissed as science fiction. Among the promising growth areas: satellite services, space manufacturing, lunar/asteroid mining, and commercial space stations that could host tourism, manufacturing, and R&D activities.
Despite his optimism, Weinzierl also acknowledged significant challenges: Keeping humans alive in space remains difficult and expensive, autonomous operations are complex, and commercial space stations face a “chicken-and-egg problem” regarding viable business models. He noted that we’ve been “dreaming about using microgravity for many decades” without finding a “killer app” yet. Nevertheless, he believes that as costs continue to decline, “there’s a ton of smart entrepreneurs out there” who will create unexpected value.
And who knows, maybe other innovations — such as AI, CRISPR, and nuclear fusion — will combine to help solve some of the problems Weinzierl identifies and accelerate the new space economy. Innovation thrives on recombination. And right now we seem to have plenty of ingredients for some amazing new technological recipes, both on Earth and beyond.
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