After last week’s basis trade collapse (which we now know has already claimed several relative value multistrat hedge funds), many were dreading the outcome of today’s 20Y auction, a reopening of 19-Year, 10-Month cusip UJ5. It turned out they have nothing to fear.
The $13BN auction priced at 1:01pm ET at a high yield of 4.810%, up sharply from last month’s 4.632% and the highest since February; more importantly it stopped through the When Issued 4.814% by 0.4bps, the second consecutive stop through (if fractionally weaker than last month) and 3rd in the past 4 months.
It wasn’t just the headline: the Bid to Cover was 2.63, which while down from last month’s 2.78 was comfortably above the six-auction average of 2.57.
But like last week, the internals were most closely watched because in a time when there was virtually no Direct demand for US paper (amid the basis trade unwind), the composition of today’s takedown distribution was sure to be a buzz if there were any outliers. In the end, there would be no buzz because there were no surprises: Indirects took down a decent 70.7%, the highest since August and naturally above the six-auction average; As for Directs, unlike last week’s collapse, today they took down a healty 12.3% – yes still the lowest since November, but hardly a single digit affair like we saw last week. Finally Dealers were left holding 17.0%, just fractionally above the 15.3% average, and in line with recent auctions.
Overall, this was a remarkable solid 20Y auction, and one which certainly brushed away concerns that foreigners are boycotting US Treasury auctions, if only for now. As for the secondary market, that’s a different story.
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