In a result that’s raising eyebrows from Washington to Tel Aviv, an early poll exploring 2028’s New York Senate race shows Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez trouncing 26-year incumbent and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer by a whopping 19 points. Ocasio-Cortez, commonly called AOC, has been coy about her 2028 intentions, but the survey surely has her salivating at the prospect of graduating to Congress’s upper chamber.
The result may be the first real measure of how much damage Schumer sustained last month by supporting a Republican-led spending bill that averted a government shutdown. His flip from categorical rejection to grudging support triggered a large swath of the Democratic Party, with members accusing Schumer of clearing a path for DOGE cuts and Trump’s broader agenda to proceed. Paralleling the headline result, 84% of New York Democrats said Democrats in Washington are not doing enough to stand up to Trump and the MAGA movement, according to the survey of 767 likely Democratic primary voters conducted by Data for Progress, a progressive leftist think tank.
In the aftermath of Schumer’s controversial spending-bill flip, AOC aggressively led the leftist backlash, telling reporters, “I think there is a deep sense of outrage and betrayal and this is not just progressive Democrats — this is across the board, the entire party. I think it is a huge slap in the face.”
As poorly as Schumer did in the primary scenario, the results show him lagging AOC in favorability by an even greater margin. AOC has a net favorability of +59 compared to just +26 for Schumer. On a side note, Bernie Sanders is the most popular politician among New York Democrats (+69), while former Obama Rahm Emanuel, who’s aggressively flirting with a 2028 presidential run, came in dead last (+12).
As you might expect when pitting 35-year-old AOC vs 74-year-old Schumer, AOC dominated among the under-45 crowd, which preferred her by a 50-point margin. However, she leads Schumer by 8 points among 46-and-older voters. Among the many stripes of Democrats the survey categorized — including age, race, gender, education, and political bent — Schumer only led among self-identified moderates, but by a substantial 15 points.
AOC’s early strength must be particularly concerning to the State of Israel and its advocates within the United States, including the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC). After triggering her own backlash from fellow progressives (including a memorable movie-theater confrontation) by taking a soft-touch approach to Israel’s catastrophically-destructive war on Gaza that followed the Oct. 7 Hamas invasion of southern Israel, AOC became more aggressive, using language that Israeli government and its fellow travelers consider unacceptable. That includes daring to say the g-word in a speech on the House floor:
“As we speak, in this moment, 1.1 million innocents in Gaza are at famine’s door. A famine that is being intentionally precipitated through the blocking of food and global humanitarian assistance by leaders in the Israeli government. If you want to know what an unfolding genocide looks like, open your eyes.”
As the odds of a “Senator Ocasio-Cortez” grow stronger, the pro-Israel lobby won’t stand idle. Whether or not Chuck Schumer pursues a sixth term, Israel’s backers will spend mightily to ensure AOC’s defeat to a reliably pro-Israel opponent. That dynamic was vividly displayed in her very own state during the 2024 New York Democratic primaries. To oust AOC’s fellow progressive “Squad” member, Rep. Jamaal Bowman — a vocal critic of Israel — AIPAC poured an astonishing $14 million into the race — helping make it the most expensive House primary contest ever. AIPAC and allied groups similarly backed a primary defeat of Missouri congresswoman and Squad member Cori Bush — that ended being the fourth-priciest House race on record.
the AIPAC interference in this primary could bankrupt the israeli economy https://t.co/E5zdKnZ8n8
— Lowland Aura Crofter (@ProgDirectorate) April 4, 2025
The new Data for Progress survey was apparently designed to generate momentum for AOC: She was the only hypothetical challenger presented to participants. She beat Schumer by a 55% to 36% margin, with 9% not sure. In addition to asking voter preference using only the candidates’ names, voters were also asked for their feelings after seeing two biographical statements about each of them, one positive and one negative. The additional context barely nudged the results. However, the verbiage describing AOC was bound to resonate more with a US left wing that’s highly inflamed and combative amid the Trump administration’s aggressive start:
- The positive bio said “Ocasio-Cortez has been a leading progressive voice and is seen as a rare member of Congress willing to rock the boat and speak truth to power.”
- The negative version said she “energize[s] extreme elements in her party” and has a “confrontational style.”
Even if Data for Progress did have its thumb on the scales for AOC, it surely doesn’t fully account for the huge 19-point margin. On the other hand, we have three years to the 2028 New York Senate primary, with many game-changing developments and machinations between now and then.
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