In Syria, New Fighting Opens Old Wounds

“Today, as we stand at this critical moment, we find ourselves facing a new danger,” Ahmed al-Sharaa, Syria’s interim president and the leader of the armed group that toppled Assad, said Sunday in a televised address calling for calm. “We will hold accountable, with full decisiveness, anyone who is involved in the bloodshed of civilians, mistreats civilians, exceeds the state’s authority or exploits power for personal gain. No one will be above the law.”

But whether the rebel commander is willing or able to tamp down the violence perpetrated by fighters under his control remains uncertain. 

The massacres in the western provinces of Latakia and Tartus, which witnesses said were carried out by government security forces and supporters, primarily targeted Alawites. Assad belongs to the religious minority group, whose members often held government positions under the deposed regime. One video showed at least 20 men dead in a single Alawite town. Another captured government supporters carrying out extrajudicial executions in what they described as a “purifying” campaign. Scores of reports of Alawite families gunned down in their homes also emerged, prompting thousands of people to flee. 

The killings appeared to be collective punishment for more than five decades of brutal rule by the Assad family. “More than a half million Syrians were killed by Assad’s regime. That’s an awful lot of blood with which to fuel a blood feud. But not every Alawi was necessarily an Assad backer, just like not every Sunni Arab was a Saddam [Hussein] supporter,” Michael Rubin, an American Enterprise Institute senior fellow, said of the deposed Iraqi dictator.  

The jihadist roots of Syria’s new leader also raise concerns as he seeks to govern the ethnically and religiously diverse country. Prior to forming the interim government, al-Sharaa led Hayat Tahrir al-Sham in the rebel takeover of Damascus. The Islamist group, a U.S.-designated terrorist organization, was initially formed as an offshoot of al-Qaeda. 

Al-Sharaa has since sought to distance himself from his extremist past, but doubts remain among the new government’s would-be international supporters. And this latest wave of violence did little to assuage their concerns. In an interview with Reuters on Monday, al-Sharaa said his government had had no formal communications with the U.S. since President Donald Trump took office. He also floated the prospect of restoring Syria’s ties with Russia—the key backer of the Assad regime. 

The prospective partnership with Moscow hints at Damascus’ desperation as it seeks to recover from more than a decade of civil war. Despite the change in leadership, Syria remains under crippling Assad-era sanctions. More than 90 percent of the country of 23 million people lives below the poverty line. 

But analysts advise caution to Western governments hoping to pour their foreign aid dollars into the burgeoning government. Despite purporting to represent a Democratic Syria, al-Sharaa said last month that it could be four to five years before the country holds elections. And his forces have already come into conflict with other armed groups in their attempts to consolidate control. As we wrote to you last month: 

Despite controlling Damascus, al-Sharaa’s coalition holds less than half of the country’s territory. Al-Sharaa announced plans to dissolve all armed groups into the state during a meeting with other rebel leaders last week, but not all of Syria’s various, multiethnic factions are on board. The Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)—which fights alongside U.S. troops to combat the Islamic State—still controls vast swaths of northeast Syria. And in the southwest, Druze militias hold key positions.

On Monday, however, al-Sharaa notched a victory in his efforts to pull the Kurdish-led militia into the fold. The leader met with SDF commander Mazloum Abdi in Damascus to sign a deal integrating the group into Syria’s armed forces and state institutions. The group controls lucrative gas and oil fields, an airport, and border crossings—all of which will fall under the control of the Syrian government. The deal, in turn, pledged to uphold “the rights of all Syrians to representation and participation in the political process.”

It’s unclear how much autonomy the SDF will retain under the umbrella of the Syrian military. But it was likely struck amid the looming threat of withdrawn U.S. support. Trump has not yet committed to backing the militia which received about $186 million from the U.S. in 2024. The group is a key player in preventing the resurgence of the Islamic State, but it also considers itself the protector of Syria’s Kurds, who make up about 10 percent of the population. As the new government in Damascus tries to dissolve the SDF and other militias, minority groups like the Kurds worry they’ll become increasingly vulnerable to sectarian violence.

Syria’s Druze, for example, have been particularly reluctant to lay down their arms. The distinct ethnic and religious group—which practices what many consider to be an offshoot of Islam, putting it in the crosshairs of ISIS and other extremists—is fearful of what a Sunni-dominated government will have in store. Some communities have even requested Israeli intervention on their behalf. Earlier this month, Israel ordered its military to be prepared to defend a Druze town near Damascus, and on Monday, a government spokesman reiterated that the country is “prepared, if needed, to defend the Druze.” 

“Religious freedom is always the canary in the coal mine,” Rubin warned. “Expect dark days ahead for Syria, darker if the international community ignores reality and channels reconstruction aid through al-Sharaa’s government.” 

• Writing for The Atlantic, Rose Horowitch looked into how U.S. universities are trying to comply with, or at least get around, President Donald Trump’s flurry of executive orders. “These universities seem to be betting that changing job titles and editing websites will be enough to keep the Trump administration off their back. Meanwhile, they’ll continue the work of promoting diversity, equity, and inclusion—the actual things—just without using that terminology. In their view, the programs they are retaining were legal all along, because they don’t involve race-based discrimination. Services such as guiding low-income students through the financial-aid process and providing support groups for those whose parents didn’t attend college help universities recruit and retain students,” she wrote. “If some private universities are betting on lying low, public universities in red states, where state legislatures and university regents might share the Trump administration’s hostility to DEI, may have little choice but to go beyond cosmetic changes. Ohio State University shut down its Office of Diversity and Inclusion at the end of February. Ohio University postponed its Black Alumni Reunion, technically open to everyone, while it reviewed the event for compliance.”
• Stephen Kotkin is considered by many to be the greatest living historian of Russia. His interview with the New Yorker’s David Remnick, which dug into the hard realities facing efforts to end the war in Ukraine, was therefore predictably excellent. “So the truths are as follows: [Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelensky is looking for security guarantees, which means that not just Ukrainians will die—that people from other countries, European countries especially, will die. The Europeans have not sent a single soldier to the front during the war, and they’re fighting over whether they’re going to send any soldiers, even if there’s a peace deal, an armistice. Poland, which is Ukraine’s biggest backer, has refused to agree to promise to send peacekeepers after the fighting stops, let alone during the fighting. So Europe, God bless, is playing charades,” he said. “Now, that’s not to say that Trump is going to solve anything. It could well be that Trump’s actions produce the perverse and unintended consequences that we often see in politics. It could be that the situation worsens. But the situation was not going well.”

Politico: “Potty Mouth’ Democrats Have Some New Fighting Words We Can’t Put in This Headline”

CNBC: “Trump Says a Transition Period for the Economy Is Likely: ‘You Can’t Really Watch the Stock Market’”

With fears brewing over the potential tariff impact, the labor market slowing and indicators pointed toward possible negative growth in the first quarter, the president and his top lieutenants are projecting a mostly optimistic outlook tempered with warnings about near-term churning.

“There is a period of transition, because what we’re doing is very big,” Trump said Sunday on the Fox News show “Sunday Morning Futures.” “We’re bringing wealth back to America. That’s a big thing. … It takes a little time, but I think it should be great for us.”

Asked whether he thinks a recession is imminent, Trump said, “I hate to predict things like that.” He later added, “Look, we’re going to have disruption, but we’re OK with that.”

NBC News: Elon Musk Calls Sen. Mark Kelly a ‘Traitor’ Over His Social Media Posts in Support of Ukraine

Megan Moroney recently won best new artist at the Country Music Association Awards, and this Tiny Desk Concert from Friday makes us confident that she’s one to watch. 

What carrots and sticks should the U.S. use to push Syria toward a pluralistic, democratic future?