Dear Taiwan: Spend on Defense, Not Climate Change

It makes sense for a country facing existential threats to spend more on defense. What doesn’t make sense is Taiwan’s decision to focus its attention on climate change in the face of mounting Chinese hostility. 

Last year, China provocatively demonstrated force against Taiwan, simulating a naval blockade of the islands and holding live-fire drills in the Taiwan Strait. All the while, China’s government publicly reiterated its intention to eventually annex the island.

This troubled many American conservatives, who sympathize with the Taiwanese and are committed to preventing Chinese aggression against the island. From a U.S. perspective, this makes sense, both because of America’s long-term relationship with Taiwan and because Chinese absorption of the island would be a strategic disaster for the United States. 

The Looming Red Threat

Chinese takeover could potentially enable its military to project power further into the Pacific and to threaten sea lanes leading to Japan and Korea.  

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Yet while America has, quite rightly, taken the threat to Taiwan seriously, Taiwan itself is not yet spending enough on its defense. 

This has left American conservatives sympathetic to Taiwan perplexed. As a percentage of GDP, Taipei spends far less on its military than other American allies do, yet it’s still found both money and time for politicized, anti-growth climate policies. 

While Taiwanese defense spending is growing, this increase has not been commensurate with the increasing threat posed by dramatic Chinese military buildup. 

Over recent decades, China has worked to rapidly develop its naval and missile forces, to the point that the Chinese navy is now numerically larger than that of the United States. 

It’s unclear exactly how much China is spending in its defense budget. However, a 2024 Department of Defense report, based on a survey of multiple models of China’s defense budget, suggested that, “Beijing spends forty to ninety percent more than it announces in its public defense budget.” 

Pick Up The Pace!

Regardless of exact spending figures, however, defense analysts broadly agree that the military balance in the Taiwan Strait has heavily shifted in China’s favor.

Yet despite continued Chinese provocations and military expansion, Taiwan increased its defense spending last year by the smallest percentage since 2018, a decision that makes even less sense given the worrying example seen in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Currently, Taiwan spends only 2.5 percent of its GDP on defense, well below U.S. spending, roughly 3.4 percent, and even further below that of U.S. allies like Poland and Estonia, 4.1 percent and 3.4 percent respectively. 

At the same time, Taiwan is making long-term economic plans that seem irresponsible given the severity of the short-term threat. 

All The Eggs In The Wrong Basket

In 2023, the Taiwanese government announced plans to be “carbon neutral” by 2050. 

Now, they’re investing capital in reducing carbon emissions, including by levying fees on imports of “carbon-intensive products” and pressuring companies that can’t reduce emissions to purchase carbon credits. They also plan to impose “carbon fees” on local industry to fund a “Greenhouse Gas Management Fund.” 

One can only imagine the negative effect these actions will have on the Taiwanese economy. Even in the United States, these sorts of expensive initiatives come across as utopian and detrimental to the economy, but in a country like Taiwan, which faces an existential military threat, they seem utterly divorced from reality. 

After all, burdening the Taiwanese economy with cumbersome climate red tape won’t do anything to help the government maintain revenue or pay for its defense. 

To see this, one need only look at the recent example provided by Germany and its recently-ousted government. There, the German government decided to shut down its last nuclear reactor, even as it was moving to divest itself of Russian gas imports. 

Predictably, along with a host of green subsidies and regulations, contributed to soaring energy prices and a flagging economy. 

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German voters seem to have realized their mistake. Now, the newly-elected conservative leader is discussing the reintroduction of nuclear energy and the implementation of a series of reforms to encourage economic activity. 

Americans should not be placed in the position of caring more about Taiwanese security than the Taiwanese government does. 

Taiwan should recognize the peril of its situation and increase defense spending to at least as large a percentage of GDP as the United States. This is not some sort of favor to Americans; it is a strategic necessity if Taiwan hopes to maintain its security and deter Chinese aggression. 

Thankfully for Taiwan, there’s an easy place to start: by cutting climate change spending and using the money for defense instead. This move will help Taiwanese defense planners attempting to ensure their national security, but it’ll also help American conservatives trying to make the case for continued American support of Taiwan. 

By dramatically increasing defense spending and cutting politicized climate spending, Taiwan will better enable its military to deter aggression, help its economy by removing barriers to growth, and demonstrate to American policymakers that it’s serious about its security and national defense.